Consortium Freeze Forecast
September 20, 2005
are up to three times more likely this winter (2005/2006) than during El
Ni�o or La Ni�a.
Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) recently released the winter forecast
for Georgia, Florida, and Alabama. Of the dozen or so devastating
freezes that have impacted the fruit industry over the last century or in
the Southeast, nearly all of them occurred during times of Neutral conditions
in the Pacific Ocean. The table below lists the impact freezes and the corresponding
Phase of the Pacific Ocean.
and Return Periods
below show the increased risk and return periods of freeze events of different
magnitudes. The image on the left plots the increased risk during
Neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean versus the risk during El Ni�o or
La Ni�a. The increased risk is presented in terms of odds. For example,
the counties shaded blue correspond to 3:1, meaning that such events are
three times more likely. The image on the right shows the return period
of the event. A return period of 10 years means that an event of that magnitude
could be expected on average once every 10 years, given Neutral conditions.
Note that this graph indicates your risk THIS YEAR.
We have found
no connection between the Pacific Ocean and first or last frost/freeze dates.
Presented here are the expect dates of first and last freezes at the 50%
probability level. Simply put, half the time you can expect a freeze before
this date and half the time after.
Current weather for blueberries
For more information,
Dr. Joel O.
University of Georgia
Dept. of Biological and Agricultural Engineering